China clings to its North Korean friend

Being a superpower is supposed to guarantee friends and influence. China, the world?s newest global power, has plenty of the latter. What it lacks ? especially among the 14 countries that surround it ? are solid comrades.

China?s friendship deficit, created by anxiety over its ambitions, was made embarrassingly plain this week as its top leaders joined in the over-the-top mourning for Kim Jong-il. If China were a confident power, a bouquet of flowers from President Hu Jintao to the North Korean embassy in Beijing would have sufficed.

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Instead, a remarkable procession was taking place in Beijing. Led by Mr. Hu and his anointed successor, Vice-President Xi Jinping, all nine members of China?s all-powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo made their way to the Hermit Kingdom?s embassy. Each solemnly offered condolences over the death of the man whose image Premier Wen Jiabao bowed to and praised as ?a great party and state leader? and ?an intimate friend of the Chinese people.?

Despite seeing its economy grow tenfold in size and emerging as a diplomatic and military force exceeded only by the United States, China?s clingy reaction is little different today than it was 17 years ago when Mr. Kim?s father and predecessor, Kim Il-sung, died. If anything, Beijing needs Pyongyang more now than it did in 1994 ? a testament to its isolation in East Asia.

Barack Obama?s declaration last fall that Asia will be the focus of his administration?s foreign policy has further complicated matters. The U.S. President backed up his commitment by deploying marines to Australia and renewing engagement with the suddenly reformist government of Myanmar. The American emphasis on the Pacific theatre has raised the paranoia level in Beijing to almost Cold War heights. China already sees Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan as part of a U.S.-led effort to encircle and constrain it.

Which leaves North Korea, Myanmar and Pakistan as China?s only ?old friends? among its neighbours.

That?s hardly enviable company, and may be why Beijing believes it can?t afford to be picky. By mentioning Kim Jong-il?s son, the 28-year-old ?Great Successor? Kim Jong-un, by name during his visit to the North Korean embassy, Mr. Hu made clear that Beijing will do its utmost to support the transition now taking place in Pyongyang.

The tributes in Beijing this week closely follow traditions established in 1994 when president Jiang Zemin led his Politburo members to the North Korean embassy. But in many ways the China of 1994 ? then ostracized for crushing the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising ? enjoyed more foreign-policy options than it does now. Kim Il-sung died at a time when China was pulling away from North Korea, establishing its first diplomatic and trade ties with Seoul.

The China of 1994 was concerned about what was taking place in Pyongyang, but not beholden to it. Today?s Chinese leaders see the threat of American encirclement as their top concern and seem willing to sacrifice the hope of better ties with South Korea and Japan to preserve the regime they view as a strategic buffer against the United States and its allies.

As unpredictable as the Kim dynasty has been, China?s top desire for the Korean Peninsula is the status quo. ?China?s core interest is to keep the peace,? said Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of Modern Foreign Relations at Tsinghua University and one of China?s leading foreign-policy thinkers. ?I know a lot of people want to see some kind of war because of the death of Kim Jong-il. We just hope that this transfer of power can be carried out peacefully.?

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